{"id":981,"date":"2008-12-23T11:18:03","date_gmt":"2008-12-23T16:18:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=981"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:50:47","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:50:47","slug":"december-analysis-of-nar-and-fnma-releases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/december-analysis-of-nar-and-fnma-releases\/","title":{"rendered":"December Analysis of NAR and FNMA Releases"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Last week, <a title=\"FNMA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fannie Mae<\/a> released its <a title=\"FNMA December 19 2008 Economics Release\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/economics\/index.jhtml;jsessionid=THLCG3DKSL5KVJ2FQSHSFGA?p=Media&amp;s=Economics+{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}26+Mortgage+Market+Analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economics &amp; Mortgage Market Analysis<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0 This morning the <a title=\"NAR\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Association of REALTORS<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 11pt\"><sup><span style=\"color: #000000\">\u00ae <\/span><\/sup><\/span>released its <a title=\"NAR: November EHS\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/files\/research\/cc16oct7391\/ehs122308.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November summary\u00a0of existing home sales<\/a>(&#8220;EHS&#8221;).\u00a0 The reports themselves have data and analysis aplenty; our goal here is\u00a0simply to highlight a few key facts\u00a0that we feel are hidden within these reports\u00a0for the benefit of those in the industry, with a specific focus on what has changed in each of their EHS analyses since their prior monthly releases.\u00a0 To key in on what each report brings to the table\u00a0that the other does not, we&#8217;ll concentrate on NAR&#8217;s regional results and FNMA&#8217;s outlook for 2009 and 2010.\u00a0 Our complete NAR analysis can be viewed and downloaded from <a title=\"The Data Speaks\" href=\"http:\/\/spreadsheets.google.com\/pub?key=pOE4ePDhdnaTVXdOeZz2tIw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>NAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Clearly, today&#8217;s release will likely dampen many holiday spirits.\u00a0 Let&#8217;s take emotion completely out of this and focus on the facts.\u00a0 You may wish to read our earlier post on <a title=\"Market Phases\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/2008\/09\/18\/market-phases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">market cycles<\/a> to get our views on what figures\u00a0we spend the most time studying.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>National<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The number of sales (also known as &#8220;sides&#8221;) fell considerably in November after two months in which sides were relatively flat to the prior year.\u00a0\u00a0The average price continues to fall (the sixteenth month in a row nationally) with the rate of decline increasing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The trailing twelve-month national sales volume (determined by multiplying total sides over the last twelve months by the <em>mean<\/em> average sales price) was $1.205 trillion.\u00a0 This is 37{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than the peak of $1.904 trillion reached in March &#8217;06.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Northeast<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">As has been the case in the recent past, the Northeast is generally in line with the national trend but less severely so, especially as it relates to sales price.\u00a0 The trailing twelve-month (&#8220;LTM&#8221;) sales volume was $254 billion, down 2{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from last month and 27{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off its peak ($349 billion, March &#8217;06).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Midwest<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Transaction sides in the Midwest were down 23{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from November &#8217;07; mean sales price was down 12{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 This combined to drop the month&#8217;s sales volume by 32{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from the prior November, the single toughest month for this region during this down market.\u00a0 LTM sales volume was $212 billion (35{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off its high-point, reached in March &#8217;06).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>South<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Sides were down 24{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} compared to November &#8217;07; price, 11{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 This combined to put November&#8217;s sales volume at its lowest point since February 2000.\u00a0 LTM sales volume ($400 billion) was 37{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off its May &#8217;06 peak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>West<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Although transaction sides improved again for the fifth straight month, the rate of improvement has slowed.\u00a0 Average price (both mean and median) continues to fall.\u00a0 The combined impact of increased sides with decreased price has meant that LTM sales volume ($331 billion) has held fairly steady for the last five months.\u00a0 This, however, is still 44{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off the peak reached in November 2005.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\"><strong>Fannie Mae: Economics &amp; Mortgage Market Analysis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Relatively little has changed since FNMA&#8217;s <a title=\"FNMA November 2008 Housing Forecast\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/pdf\/economics\/2008\/Housing_Forecast_111008.pdf;jsessionid=0MDQJU231GFR5J2FQSHSFGA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November release<\/a>.\u00a0 Depending on your outlook, that&#8217;s either no news or good news .\u00a0 They are still calling for 2008&#8217;s\u00a0\u00a0median average price to come in a hair under $200,000 (that projection has moved very little over the last six months) with total EHS of 4,949,000 (slightly higher than last month&#8217;s projection; this figure has been slowly revised upwards nearly every month of this year).\u00a0 The combined impact is of a slightly more positive outlook (in terms of total sales volume) for year-end 2008.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Their 2009 outlook is not as positive as it was last month though, again, this change in outlook is minor.\u00a0 It is due mostly to a downward revision of price (now projected at $184,800, from a projection of $187,000 last month).\u00a0 Roughly speaking, they are effectively calling for 2009 sales volume to be 7.6{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2008 (keep in mind that 2009&#8217;s sales volume figures have been brought down every month for the last six months; it seems hard to believe now but up until June they were even\u00a0projecting that 2009&#8217;s\u00a0sales volume would be higher than\u00a02008).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Finally, their 2010 projections continue to indicate that although it will be an improvement over 2009, total sales volume is not expected to reach 2008 levels.\u00a0 In other words, for most brokers: plan as if the total market opportunities over the next two years will be no better than this year.\u00a0 Improving your top line, and your bottom line, will have to come from initiatives that will capture a greater share of what&#8217;s out there.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">There is no hiding that today&#8217;s release was less than hoped for and the headlines will understandably be negative.\u00a0 It&#8217;s important to keep in mind as you look at this data what impact the <em>mix of business<\/em> is having, however.\u00a0\u00a0A twelve or thirteen percent drop in median (or mean) sales price does not mean that all homes&#8217; values dropped 12{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} or 13{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 If, in a certain market at a certain time, a higher number of lower-priced homes is selling than usual, the market&#8217;s average will decrease even if the value of the higher-priced homes is unchanged.\u00a0 Although we shouldn&#8217;t kid ourselves into thinking all is well, sometimes we need to remind ourselves (and others) of this simple fact as we look at the numbers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">For those who like a\u00a0really deep dive into the statistical waters, check out this <a title=\"Zillow: Debunking the Median Sales Price\" href=\"http:\/\/www.zillowblog.com\/debunking-the-median-sale-price\/2008\/03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Zillow post<\/a> on how the mix of business impacts median sales price.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week, Fannie Mae released its Economics &amp; Mortgage Market Analysis.\u00a0\u00a0 This morning the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae released its November summary\u00a0of existing home sales(&#8220;EHS&#8221;).\u00a0 The reports themselves have data and analysis aplenty; our goal here is\u00a0simply to highlight a few key facts\u00a0that we feel are hidden within these reports\u00a0for the benefit of those in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,61],"tags":[1221,5601,14271,19951,28201,28331,41091],"class_list":["post-981","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brokerage-operations","category-commentary","tag-agent","tag-broker","tag-fannie-mae","tag-housing-market","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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