{"id":793,"date":"2008-11-25T13:36:34","date_gmt":"2008-11-25T18:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=793"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:50:51","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:50:51","slug":"analyzing-nar-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing NAR’s Monthly Release"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS<\/a>\u00ae<\/sup><\/span><\/span> issued its monthly release of existing home sales.\u00a0 Rather than add to the many existing articles<\/a> that understandably lean towards the consumers’ perspective, we believe there are trends and statistics that aren’t being highlighted that could help practitioners in our industry plan ahead.\u00a0 You may find some of what follows to be more valuable if you read our post on market cycles<\/a> and if you have handy the one-page NAR data for October (found at the bottom of this article<\/a>).\u00a0 You can also download our analysis here<\/a>.\u00a0 As always, feel free to <\/em>email<\/em><\/a> us if you would like anything sent your way.<\/em><\/p>\n

National<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sales (which will hereafter be referred to as “sides”) and price fell in October, with the decrease in sides reversing a one-month pause of what had been a thirty-month trend of year-over-year transaction sides’ declines.\u00a0 This is important to note because up until October the rate<\/em> of decline had been slowing throughout the year, which had lent some support that, nationally, we were moving towards a phase in which sides would be higher than prior-year, which is a sign of recovery as inventory gets worked through.<\/p>\n

The national sales volume (determined by multiplying 418,000 sides with a mean average sales price of $224,700) for October was $93.9 billion, a 9{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from the prior month and 13{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than October ’07.\u00a0 The trailing twelve-month sales volume was $1.231 trillion; the last time the figure was at this level was July ’03.\u00a0 This figure is also 35{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than the peak of $1.904 trillion reached in March ’06.<\/p>\n

Northeast<\/strong><\/p>\n

This region’s figures are directionally in line with the national trends, with the important exception that the percentage decrease in average sales price has been less pronounced than nationally.\u00a0 October’s results delayed any signs that the Northeast had been moving from Phase V to Phase VI.<\/p>\n

Sales volume was $19.1 billion, a 9{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from September and 14{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than October ’07.\u00a0 Trailing twelve-month sales volume was $259 billion.\u00a0 This was last reached in April ’04 and represents a 26{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from the high-point of $349 billion reached in March ’06.<\/p>\n

Midwest<\/strong><\/p>\n

October sales volume in the Midwest was $16 billion, 13{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than September and 16{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than October ’07.\u00a0 Trailing twelve-month sales volume was $218 billion.\u00a0 This is the lowest in exactly five years and represents a 33{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from the $328 billion reached in March ’06.<\/p>\n

South<\/strong><\/p>\n

At $31.5 billion, October sales volume in the South was 6{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} lower than September and 15{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than October ’07.\u00a0 Trailing twelve-month sales volume was $411 billion, which nearly matches July ’03 and represents a 35{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from the May ’06 apex of $635 billion.<\/p>\n

West<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although sales prices continue to drop sharply, the West represents the only region with continued support of sides’ improvement.\u00a0 For the fourth straight month, sides in October were higher than the prior year’s results.\u00a0 This rate has improved dramatically over the last two months; if\u00a0this trend continues, the West will\u00a0experience the needed\u00a0inventory reduction that is critical to a recovery.<\/p>\n

The West’s sales volume was $27.6 billion in October, a 6{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} decrease from September and a 5{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} increase<\/em> over October ’07.\u00a0 Trailing twelve-month sales volume was $333 billion (up over prior month for the third straight time).\u00a0 This level is similar to March ’03 (yet is 43{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} lower than the November ’05 peak of $589 billion).<\/p>\n

Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n

A simple step brokers can take is to use local board data to calculate\u00a0the trailing twelve-month sales volume\u00a0in their market to see how they compare to national and regional trends, and to determine when they were last at today’s levels (keeping in mind any changes in broker commission rates).\u00a0 This may be helpful both to your own planning (e.g., to review how your company’s performance has stacked up against the local market) and to your messaging with agents.\u00a0 Having hard data to support a statement like “we are in a 2003 environment” may be very helpful as you make decisions.\u00a0 From there, calculate your forecasts for next year (you can start this process by looking at projections from either NAR<\/a> of Fannie Mae<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Carefully watching the data every month helps you stay atop of the trends.\u00a0 Price drops make headlines, but knowing how transaction sides and price\u00a0changes move relative to prior periods will give you deeper insight into where we may be headed (especially changes in sides).<\/p>\n

Yes, this is a lot of data to absorb but\u00a0once your eyes get used to it the calculations are straight-forward yet very telling.\u00a0 We believe there is great value to reviewing this on a real-time basis, so after each NAR release (usually around the 25th of each month), we will publish the statistics and our analysis here.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae issued its monthly release of existing home sales.\u00a0 Rather than add to the many existing articles that understandably lean towards the consumers’ perspective, we believe there are trends and statistics that aren’t being highlighted that could help practitioners in our industry plan ahead.\u00a0 You may find some of what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[181],"tags":[1221,5601,14271,28201,28331,41091],"class_list":["post-793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate","tag-agent","tag-broker","tag-fannie-mae","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae issued its monthly release of existing home sales.\u00a0 Rather than add to the many existing articles that understandably lean towards the consumers’ perspective, we believe there are trends and statistics that aren’t being highlighted that could help practitioners in our industry plan ahead.\u00a0 You may find some of what […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizabeth Byrne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elizabeth Byrne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Elizabeth Byrne\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/person\/cba2618c2f68146c705ea5ed10947fe4\"},\"headline\":\"Analyzing NAR’s Monthly Release\",\"datePublished\":\"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\"},\"wordCount\":1006,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Agent\",\"Broker\",\"Fannie Mae\",\"NAR\",\"National Association of Realtors\",\"statistics\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Real estate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\",\"name\":\"Analyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Analyzing NAR’s Monthly Release\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/\",\"name\":\"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\",\"description\":\"Insights into the Real Estate Industry\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2021\/11\/BHGRE_bug.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2021\/11\/BHGRE_bug.png\",\"width\":76,\"height\":76,\"caption\":\"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/person\/cba2618c2f68146c705ea5ed10947fe4\",\"name\":\"Elizabeth Byrne\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Elizabeth Byrne\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/author\/lizbyrne\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Analyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Analyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","og_description":"Yesterday the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae issued its monthly release of existing home sales.\u00a0 Rather than add to the many existing articles that understandably lean towards the consumers’ perspective, we believe there are trends and statistics that aren’t being highlighted that could help practitioners in our industry plan ahead.\u00a0 You may find some of what […]","og_url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/","og_site_name":"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","article_published_time":"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00","article_modified_time":"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00","author":"Elizabeth Byrne","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Elizabeth Byrne","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/"},"author":{"name":"Elizabeth Byrne","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/person\/cba2618c2f68146c705ea5ed10947fe4"},"headline":"Analyzing NAR’s Monthly Release","datePublished":"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00","dateModified":"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/"},"wordCount":1006,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization"},"keywords":["Agent","Broker","Fannie Mae","NAR","National Association of Realtors","statistics"],"articleSection":["Real estate"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/","url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/","name":"Analyzing NAR's Monthly Release - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#website"},"datePublished":"2008-11-25T18:36:34+00:00","dateModified":"2024-12-30T19:50:51+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nar-release\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Analyzing NAR’s Monthly Release"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/","name":"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","description":"Insights into the Real Estate Industry","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization","name":"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog","url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2021\/11\/BHGRE_bug.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2021\/11\/BHGRE_bug.png","width":76,"height":76,"caption":"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/person\/cba2618c2f68146c705ea5ed10947fe4","name":"Elizabeth Byrne","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a49eb437a2433ab9a3fa67b891eeae5e208a3bcc759e71ae9cc366f39f09260e?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Elizabeth Byrne"},"url":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/author\/lizbyrne\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/181"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=793"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69063,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793\/revisions\/69063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}