{"id":321,"date":"2008-09-23T18:10:56","date_gmt":"2008-09-23T18:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=321"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:51:55","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:51:55","slug":"market-phases-the-data-speaks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/market-phases-the-data-speaks\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Phases: The Data Speaks"},"content":{"rendered":"

Posted by Nicolai Kolding<\/strong><\/p>\n

A few days ago I offered\u00a0the idea<\/a> that the direction of the residential real estate market is driven first by transaction sides then by price.\u00a0 The basic theory that the market is cyclical\u00a0is obviously not unique.\u00a0 There are several different views on this;\u00a0my cycle has eight phases (with Phase I being Paradiso<\/em> to Phase V’s Inferno<\/em>).<\/p>\n

To support this, I gathered national and regional (Northeast, South, Midwest, and West) figures on closed sales and average price from the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae<\/a> for each month dating back to January 1999.\u00a0 I then compared the rate of change versus prior month, quarter, and same month of prior year to analyze how the data fit the phases.<\/p>\n

There are a ton of numbers here but I believe it’s worth your time as it’s very compelling.\u00a0 To see it for yourself, you can either view<\/strong><\/a> the spreadsheet\u00a0or\u00a0email<\/a> me for the original (note that there are six tabs to the spreadsheet<\/em>).<\/p>\n

As you study this, I would suggest focusing most of your attention on the “Prior Yr” column.\u00a0 You may\u00a0find the following interesting:<\/p>\n