{"id":1926,"date":"2009-03-24T11:05:38","date_gmt":"2009-03-24T16:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=1926"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:47:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:47:19","slug":"review-of-march-releases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-march-releases\/","title":{"rendered":"NAR&#8217;s March Release: Is the Media Too Positive this Time??"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Sorry to play the contrarian again, but why all the\u00a0<a title=\"Google News\" href=\"http:\/\/news.google.com\/news?pz=1&amp;ncl=1319219026&amp;topic=b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hoopla<\/a> over <a title=\"NAR's March Release\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/press_room\/news_releases\/2009\/03\/february_existing_home_sales\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NAR&#8217;s release this week<\/a>?\u00a0 Was the news really good enough to elicit a &#8220;<a title=\"Motley Fool Blog\" href=\"http:\/\/caps.fool.com\/blogs\/viewpost.aspx?bpid=168342&amp;t=01006883492052266391\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wow<\/a>&#8220;?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Believe me, after absorbing one ugly headline after another (both fair and unfair) for years now, the industry could certainly use a positive spin.\u00a0 Like many others,\u00a0I felt that the media practically\u00a0reveled in reporting bad news while too often failing to expand on the whole story <a title=\"Economist Blog\" href=\"http:\/\/www.economistblog.com\/2009\/03\/17\/housing-affordability-hits-record-highs-in-dec-and-jan-why-does-the-media-ignore-the-good-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">or even report on the positives<\/a>.\u00a0 This time around, though, I must be missing something because I just don&#8217;t get why <em>this<\/em> is the month when the figures are being trumpeted as the <a title=\"CNN Money\" href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/03\/23\/real_estate\/existing_home_sales\/?postversion=2009032310\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">possible first signs of a turnaround<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">So pardon me if I&#8217;m flying against the happy winds when I\u00a0think February was barely different than prior months; <a title=\"February Analysis\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/2009\/02\/26\/review-of-february-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">as before<\/a>, I see in the numbers reasons to be both cautious and cautiously optimistic.\u00a0 But I sure ain&#8217;t ready to call this yet.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><!--more-->Let&#8217;s look at a few key facts:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Fewer transactions, dropping price<\/span>.\u00a0 Nationally, there continues to be a decrease in both the number of transactions (or &#8220;sides&#8221;) and price.\u00a0 Don&#8217;t get caught comparing one month versus the prior month as seasonality trends will cloud things; look at the <em>same month<\/em> in the <em>prior year<\/em>.\u00a0 Yes, both sides and price in February were better than January.\u00a0 That&#8217;s almost always the case in good times and bad.\u00a0 Look at the relevant data: the 280,000 sides closed in February &#8217;09 were 10{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than\u00a0February &#8217;08 (312,000) and the price was off considerably (-13.4{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} or -15.5{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}, depending on whether you&#8217;re looking at mean or median average).<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Rate of Price Decline Slowing?<\/span> I&#8217;d argue that the jury is still out here.\u00a0 February&#8217;s price was higher than January&#8217;s both nationally and in all four regions.\u00a0 It was also down against February of &#8217;08 both nationally and in all four regions.\u00a0 Now I&#8217;m certainly happy that the <em>rate of decline<\/em> has slowed in all regions but it&#8217;s only a one-month change so I&#8217;m not ready to call that a trend.\u00a0 It simply means that, so far, for one month we&#8217;ve been falling slower.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Ten Months of Inventory<\/span>.\u00a0 This figure has held steady now for three straight months.\u00a0 That&#8217;s good.\u00a0 But at 9.7 months of inventory, there are\u00a0still a whole lot of listings to burn through before things return to a more &#8220;normal&#8221; six months.\u00a0 That means that in many markets there will continue to be price pressures.<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">Most Brokers&#8217; Revenues Are 39{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} Off Peak<\/span>.\u00a0 Multiply sides and mean price and you get sales volume, a pretty close gauge of a company&#8217;s revenues.\u00a0 Most companies have annualized sales volume that is way, way off where they were about three years ago.\u00a0 The best markets are now holding steady.\u00a0 In all four regions but the West (which has held steady for eight straight months) we continue to see deterioration in the trailing twelve months&#8217; sales volume.\u00a0 The\u00a0region that&#8217;s fallen the least off peak is the Northeast, which is &#8220;only&#8221; down 30{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c};\u00a0the West is 44{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off its peak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">On the one hand, I&#8217;ll take any positive reaction from the media I can get.\u00a0 On the other, I refuse to get caught up in the hoopla and ignore the real numbers.\u00a0 And you know what?\u00a0 The last thing we need right now\u00a0is for a bunch of us, most notably the government, suddenly thinking all is dandy with housing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Keep rowing hard and you&#8217;ll get through the storm, but don&#8217;t relax yet;\u00a0I&#8217;m sure\u00a0there are\u00a0stiff winds ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Sorry to play the contrarian again, but why all the hoopla over NAR&#8217;s release this week?  Was the news really good enough to elicit a &#8220;wow&#8221;?<\/p>\n<p>Believe me, after absorbing one ugly headline after another (both fair and unfair) for years now, the industry could certainly use a positive spin on the numbers.  Like many others I know, I felt that the media practically reveled in reporting bad news while too often failing to expand on the whole story.  This time around, though, I must be missing something because I just don&#8217;t get why this is the month when the figures are being trumpeted as the possible first signs of a turnaround.<\/p>\n<p>So pardon me if I&#8217;m flying against the positive media winds when I think February was barely different than prior months; as before, I see in the numbers reasons to be both cautious and cautiously optimistic.  But I sure ain&#8217;t ready to call this yet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,61],"tags":[26401,28201,28331,41091],"class_list":["post-1926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brokerage-operations","category-commentary","tag-media","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>NAR&#039;s March Release: Is the Media Too Positive this Time?? - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-march-releases\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NAR&#039;s March Release: Is the Media Too Positive this Time?? - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sorry to play the contrarian again, but why all the hoopla over NAR&#039;s release this week? Was the news really good enough to elicit a &quot;wow&quot;? Believe me, after absorbing one ugly headline after another (both fair and unfair) for years now, the industry could certainly use a positive spin on the numbers. Like many others I know, I felt that the media practically reveled in reporting bad news while too often failing to expand on the whole story. This time around, though, I must be missing something because I just don&#039;t get why this is the month when the figures are being trumpeted as the possible first signs of a turnaround. So pardon me if I&#039;m flying against the positive media winds when I think February was barely different than prior months; as before, I see in the numbers reasons to be both cautious and cautiously optimistic. 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