{"id":1666,"date":"2009-02-26T14:27:28","date_gmt":"2009-02-26T19:27:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=1666"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:48:31","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:48:31","slug":"review-of-february-releases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/","title":{"rendered":"Review of February Releases from NAR, FNMA, and Case-Schiller"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">There have been several big releases over the last few days.\u00a0 Let&#8217;s take a look at each and what figures are most important to those managing real estate businesses today.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">I tend to focus on <a title=\"NAR\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NAR<\/a>&#8216;s closed data while ignoring their forecasts (I&#8217;ll lean on <a title=\"FNMA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fannie Mae<\/a> for that).\u00a0 Because\u00a0of the way they pull their\u00a0data, I&#8217;m not a big fan of the <a title=\"Case-Schiller\" href=\"http:\/\/www2.standardandpoors.com\/portal\/site\/sp\/en\/us\/page.topic\/indices_csmahp\/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">S&amp;P\/Case-Schiller<\/a> national figures but I do track the local stats just for trends.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">There are two major themes we can pull from the releases: (a) as if it wasn&#8217;t tough enough, in all regions but the West, January was one of the toughest months on record in the last decade, and (b) the forecasts indicate that the average residential broker will likely\u00a0be under continued pressure this year and next.\u00a0 For many brokers, the revenue levels that were reached last year, as difficult as that was for most, may not be reached again until 2011.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><!--more--><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><a title=\"NAR Jan 09 EHS\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/f108b3804d277ede9511f526a9949436\/REL0901EHS.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&amp;CACHEID=f108b3804d277ede9511f526a9949436\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NAR&#8217;s January Existing Home Sales<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>National<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">January&#8217;s transactions (or &#8220;sides&#8221;) of 257,000 were 8{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than January &#8217;08.\u00a0\u00a0Mean average sales price continues to fall at double-digit rates; it is now at $212,900, which is 13{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than a year ago and\u00a023{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off the June &#8217;07 peak.\u00a0 Inventory, which had come down for two straight months, climbed up to 9.6 months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">January&#8217;s monthly sales volume (total sides multiplied by <em>mean<\/em> average sales price) was the lowest national figure recorded since February 2001.\u00a0 The trailing twelve months&#8217; (&#8220;LTM&#8221;)\u00a0sales volume\u00a0is now\u00a021{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than\u00a0it was a year ago\u00a0and 38{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than the peak reached in March &#8217;06.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Northeast<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Having previously suffered far less than the three other regions, the Northeast is now being challenged more than ever.\u00a0 January&#8217;s sides were down 22{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from a year ago while\u00a0price dropped\u00a012{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}\u00a0(the rate of decline has accelerated over the past few months).\u00a0 As measured in sales volume,\u00a0January was the worst month for the average Northeast broker in exactly nine years.\u00a0 LTM sales volume is now 29{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off peak (March &#8217;06).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Midwest<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The Midwest fall continues: sides are down 16{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from\u00a0January &#8217;08 while\u00a0price is down 7{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} over the same period.\u00a0 According to the Case-Schiller data, Chicago&#8217;s prices are down 14{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from a year ago but the rate of decline is increasing especially over the past three months\u00a0(in other words, price declines are picking up pace).\u00a0 <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">The Midwest&#8217;s sales volume in January was lower than any month recorded in the last ten years<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>South<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This region&#8217;s woes did not improve in January, unfortunately.\u00a0 Sides are down 17{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from a year ago; price, 8{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 LTM sales volume is now $388 billion (down 23{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} in just one year and 39{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off peak).\u00a0 In some southern markets, however, there may be some support that a price bottom is near or has been reached.\u00a0 The reduction in the average sales price to get to this point has clearly been severe.\u00a0 For example, according to Case-Schiller, Miami&#8217;s prices are down 41{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} from peak but the rate of decline seems to have stayed the same recently.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>West<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The trends in the West continue as they have for the past half-year:\u00a0 price sharply down, sides sharply up.\u00a0 For this reason, LTM sales volume has held fairly steady for seven months running\u00a0(and, in fact, <span style=\"text-decoration: underline\">January&#8217;s sales volume was higher than January &#8217;08<\/span>).\u00a0 Although the trends are clearly not what the average homeowner wants, <a title=\"Market Phases\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/2008\/09\/18\/market-phases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this is a necessary stage<\/a> on the road to recovery and we should expect that the rate of price declines will soon decrease and eventually level as inventory is burned off.\u00a0 San Diego, in particular, may be experiencing this.\u00a0 All indications are that the West will be the first region to feel the real effects of a turnaround.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><a title=\"FNMA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/pdf\/economics\/2009\/Housing_Forecast_022409.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Fannie Mae&#8217;s February 2009 Housing Forecast<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">With this week&#8217;s release, FNMA once again brought down their forecasts for both 2009 and 2010.\u00a0 Whereas a month ago they projected 2009 <em>median<\/em> average price to be 7.4{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2008, it has now been put at $181,500 (or 8.6{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2008).\u00a0 Sides were also revised downwards by a notch (from 4.75 million to 4.73 million).\u00a0 From\u00a0the average\u00a0broker&#8217;s perspective, the combination would result in an 11{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} sales volume drop.\u00a0 The nadir for most brokers should be hit sometime this year but the climb back up will be slow; very few will see 2010 sales volume reach even 2008 levels.\u00a0 This is because FNMA is\u00a0projecting\u00a0sides to level out sometime in the fourth quarter of this year while prices will continue to drop through 2010.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There have been several big releases over the last few days.\u00a0 Let&#8217;s take a look at each and what figures are most important to those managing real estate businesses today. I tend to focus on NAR&#8216;s closed data while ignoring their forecasts (I&#8217;ll lean on Fannie Mae for that).\u00a0 Because\u00a0of the way they pull their\u00a0data, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,61],"tags":[7161,14271,28201,28331,41091],"class_list":["post-1666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brokerage-operations","category-commentary","tag-case-schiller","tag-fannie-mae","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Review of February Releases from NAR, FNMA, and Case-Schiller - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Review of February Releases from NAR, FNMA, and Case-Schiller - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There have been several big releases over the last few days.\u00a0 Let&#8217;s take a look at each and what figures are most important to those managing real estate businesses today. I tend to focus on NAR&#8216;s closed data while ignoring their forecasts (I&#8217;ll lean on Fannie Mae for that).\u00a0 Because\u00a0of the way they pull their\u00a0data, [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2009-02-26T19:27:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-12-30T19:48:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Elizabeth Byrne\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Elizabeth Byrne\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Elizabeth Byrne\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#\/schema\/person\/cba2618c2f68146c705ea5ed10947fe4\"},\"headline\":\"Review of February Releases from NAR, FNMA, and Case-Schiller\",\"datePublished\":\"2009-02-26T19:27:28+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-12-30T19:48:31+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\"},\"wordCount\":1052,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Case-Schiller\",\"Fannie Mae\",\"NAR\",\"National Association of Realtors\",\"statistics\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Brokerage Operations\",\"Commentary\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/review-of-february-releases\/\",\"name\":\"Review of February Releases from NAR, FNMA, and Case-Schiller - 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