{"id":1295,"date":"2009-01-26T12:01:28","date_gmt":"2009-01-26T17:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/?p=1295"},"modified":"2024-12-30T14:50:30","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T19:50:30","slug":"analyzing-nars-january-release","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nars-january-release\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing NAR and FNMA&#8217;s January Releases"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\">At 10am this morning, the <a title=\"NAR\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Association of REALTORS<\/a><span style=\"font-size: 11pt\"><sup><span style=\"color: #000000\">\u00ae <\/span><\/sup><\/span>released its year-end summary\u00a0of existing home sales (their commentary can be read <a title=\"NAR 1\/26\/09 Release Commentary\" href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/research\/commentary_ehs012609\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>).\u00a0 As with our prior monthly analyses,\u00a0we simply want to\u00a0focus here on the figures that are most important to those within the\u00a0industry.\u00a0 Therefore, for both the national and four regional areas, we will look at trends for the number of transactions (or &#8220;sides&#8221;), <em>mean <\/em>average sales price, and sales volume (total sides multiplied by <em>mean<\/em> average sales price).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Although the news following today&#8217;s release seems so far to be focusing in on the somewhat surprising December increase in sides, the fact is this is being driven almost exclusively by the West region, where we have seen positive signs for the last six months.\u00a0 All three other regions continue to be in the unenviable situation\u00a0of managing through\u00a0both falling sides and price.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><!--more--><strong>National<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The number of sides closed in December was about equal to that of December &#8217;07.\u00a0\u00a0Although the mean average price fell once again (at $216,000 it\u00a0is now 22{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off the peak reached in June &#8217;07), inventory was reduced significantly (from 11.2 months&#8217; supply to 9.3 months).\u00a0 December monthly sales volume was 14{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than December &#8217;07.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Full-year 2008 sales volume\u00a0was $1.191 trillion.\u00a0 This was 21{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2007, 32{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2006, and 37{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2005.\u00a0 This puts the average residential brokerage at the same trailing twelve-month (&#8220;LTM&#8221;) place as June of 2003.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Northeast<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Compared to the prior year, December&#8217;s sides were\u00a0down 10{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} and price 8{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 Keep a careful eye on price in the coming months; the Northeast has to date been the only region to avoid double-digit price drops, however, last month&#8217;s decrease was its largest yet.\u00a0 Full-year sales volume was $251 billion, which was 18{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} below\u00a02007&#8217;s levels (and 23{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2006).\u00a0 The average residential brokerage in the Northeast is now generating the same LTM sales volume as in March &#8217;04.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Midwest<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Both\u00a0sides and price in the Midwest continue to fall, although December <em>may<\/em> be showing early signs of a slowing\u00a0of the rate of\u00a0decline.\u00a0 Year-end sales volume was $209 billion (22{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off of 2007 and 32{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} below 2006).\u00a0 The average residential brokerage in the midwest\u00a0has to go back to August of 2002 for an equivalent LTM sales volume.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>South<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Sides were 7{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}\u00a0lower than\u00a0December &#8217;07 while\u00a0price was down\u00a08{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 For eighteen straight months (and 28 of the last 29), the South has experienced declining sides and price versus the prior year (the longest such streak of any region).\u00a0 There may be signs, however, the transaction sides are finally ready to\u00a0pick up.\u00a0 Year-end sales volume finished at $395 billion, or 22{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2007 and 36{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off of 2006.\u00a0 May 2003 was the last time LTM sales volume was this low.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>West<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The number of closed sides was vastly improved over December 2007; for the third month out of the last four, the West has had over a 30{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} sides&#8217; improvement over the prior-year period.\u00a0 This continues to be an important trend as inventory is being reduced.\u00a0 As expected, this is coming at the expense of a sharply falling average price, however.\u00a0 At $252,800, the mean average is 27{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}\u00a0off of December &#8217;07 and 33{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than what the average homeowner could have expected\u00a0for about a two-year period ending in July &#8217;07.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Year-end sales volume finished at $330 billion (16{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2007, 34{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off of 2006, and a whopping 44{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} off of 2005).\u00a0 The West&#8217;s LTM sales volume is at about where things were at the end of\u00a02002.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">It is very difficult to draw any definitive conclusions from this.\u00a0 Simply put, if these results are slightly better than expected, November was clearly\u00a0less than expected.\u00a0 How much of what happened in December was, for one reason or another, a result of November activity being pushed out slightly?\u00a0 With the exception of the West, there are no definitive trends forming.\u00a0 The January and February figures may change that, so we will carefully study those releases when they come out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><em><strong>The following was updated on January 28th when\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><a title=\"FNMA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>Fannie Mae<\/strong><\/em><\/a><em><strong> released its <\/strong><\/em><a title=\"FNMA Jan E&amp;MMA\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fanniemae.com\/media\/pdf\/economics\/2009\/Housing_Forecast_012309.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em><strong>Economics &amp; Mortgage Market Analysis<\/strong><\/em><\/a><strong>:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Once again there\u00a0were slight downward revisions throughout.\u00a0 FNMA&#8217;s 2008 <em>median<\/em> average price (for existing homes) has been set 0.5{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} lower than last month, so their price projections for\u00a0this year and next\u00a0were similary reset and brought down 0.5{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 I wouldn&#8217;t have concerned myself over this had their\u00a0sales\u00a0forecast remained the same.\u00a0 That was not the case, however.\u00a0 They brought 2009 sides down another 4{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} to 4,748,000.\u00a0 Even 2010 was brought down 2{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c}.\u00a0 Bottom-line: for the average broker, the total sales volume in 2009 is predicted by FNMA to be 9.9{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} less than 2008 (<a title=\"12\/23 Clean Slate Blog post\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrealestateblog.com\/2008\/12\/23\/december-analysis-of-nar-and-fnma-releases\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">last month<\/a>, 2009 was projected at 7.6{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} worse than 2008 so this is a pretty big change).\u00a0 The 5.5{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} volume improvement FNMA is calling for 2010 (over 2009) will therefore mean most brokers won&#8217;t even get back to &#8217;08 levels until at least 2011.\u00a0 In other words, <em>the vast majority of residential brokers should plan for at least two more years of stress<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">If you look at FNMA&#8217;s quarter-by-quarter analysis, nationally sides will improve sometime at the end of this year.\u00a0 Median prices, however, are forecast to continue to decline on a year-over-year basis throughout this year and next.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">If you&#8217;re a broker and you believe your market has tracked pretty close to the national trends you may want to consider looking at your 2002 P&amp;L for revenue projections, because a 10{0a8e414e4f0423ce9f97e7209435b0fa449e6cffaf599cce0c556757c159a30c} reduction from last year&#8217;s sales volume puts us at about that level.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At 10am this morning, the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae released its year-end summary\u00a0of existing home sales (their commentary can be read here).\u00a0 As with our prior monthly analyses,\u00a0we simply want to\u00a0focus here on the figures that are most important to those within the\u00a0industry.\u00a0 Therefore, for both the national and four regional areas, we will look [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":181,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[181],"tags":[1221,5601,14271,19951,28201,28331,41091],"class_list":["post-1295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate","tag-agent","tag-broker","tag-fannie-mae","tag-housing-market","tag-nar","tag-national-association-of-realtors","tag-statistics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analyzing NAR and FNMA&#039;s January Releases - Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Be Better Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bhgrecareer.com\/bebetterblog\/analyzing-nars-january-release\/\" \/>\n<meta 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